A lot of people are predicting that we will see a “jobless recovery”. Arnold Kling has been popularizing the recalculation story of the recession. I don’t buy the story for why we fell into a deep recession, however, this is the story where Kling’s model provides the most insight. Unlike previous recessions, it looks like we’ll be enduring a “recalculative recovery”, where joblessness among the relatively unskilled will continue to languish, but the skilled will return to normal rates of unemployment fairly quickly — noting a recalculation in the economy to higher-skilled labor.
The unemployment level in the two states that I jump between:
Colorado: 7.9%, Nebraska: 4.5%
In a future post, I’ll try an lay out why the term “jobless recovery” is an oxymoron, and why pragmatic right-wing liberals should never use it because it is only ammunition for the left.
H/T Matt Yglesias