Is #Abenomics Working?

According to Bloomberg it is, and largely through channels articulated by market monetarists and some new Keynesians. However is this enough to vindicate our views? I asked this question on Twitter, but haven’t received a response, so I’m going to give my interpretation after the quote.

Real estate broker Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. and Barclays Plc are forecasting leasing costs for prime office space will climb this year and next. The vacancy rate for grade-A buildings in the city’s major business districts fell for a second quarter to 8.8 percent as of December from a record 10.3 percent in the three months to June, according to broker CBRE Group Inc.

“We are now seeing some very early signs of a return in confidence to the market,” said Neil Hitchen, regional director at Jones Lang LaSalle in Tokyo. Tenants “are renegotiating terms early to try to take advantage of the tenant-favorable market conditions and get in good shape for the next few years,” he said.

The rebound may signal the end of a 21-year slide that cut rents for all categories of offices in the city’s five central wards by 63 percent, according to Miki Shoji Co., a Tokyo-based broker. Japan has been struggling with deflation that has caused companies and households to put off spending since the late 1990s, after asset prices collapsed.


“There is an increase in expectations that real estate investment will become more active, helped by monetary easing since Abe took over the government,” said Masashi Hirano, president and chief executive officer of Tokio Marine Property Investment Management Inc., a unit of Japan’s second-biggest casualty insurer. Tokio Marine Property plans to raise a fund to invest in Tokyo’s office buildings for the first time since 2008, Hirano said.

Is it time for a market monetarist parade? Probably not just yet, but we are much closer than most people probably think, and getting closer every day. At this point, people should certainly start prepping floats…

One thing that recent events in Japan have laid to rest is the idea that Japan is — or was ever — facing the mystical aberration known as the “liquidity trap”.

h/t Matt O’Brien

Update, for the MMT’ers:


h/t Scott Sumner


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